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A Party on the Ropes, A President on the Campaign Trail
President Cyril Ramaphosa stepped into eThekwini on Monday, 28 September 2026, with something to prove. Facing a provincial political landscape that has shifted dramatically against his party, he stood before ANC supporters and delivered a defiant message: the African National Congress is not dead in KwaZulu-Natal, and it will not be buried there. His visit came as the party ramps up its campaign ahead of the 4 November local government elections, an electoral test that could either confirm the ANC’s collapse in the province or signal the beginning of a genuine comeback.
The backdrop to Ramaphosa’s confidence is stark. The ANC’s support in KwaZulu-Natal collapsed from 54% in the previous election cycle to roughly 16% in the 2024 national and provincial elections. The MK Party stormed to 45% of the provincial vote, while the IFP also finished ahead of the once-dominant ANC. For a party that built its identity in this province — home to struggle icons and deep organisational roots — that result was nothing short of devastating.
Ramaphosa’s Defiance and the Renewal Narrative
“I said it can’t be; the ANC will never die here in KZN. KZN is the home of the African National Congress,” Ramaphosa declared to those gathered. He acknowledged that many had drawn the conclusion that the party was finished in the province, but pushed back hard, insisting the current campaign was living proof that the ANC remained rooted and was actively rebuilding. He pointed to people returning to the ANC from rival parties as evidence of a renewal underway, framing their return as a vote of confidence in the party’s direction rather than a desperate trickle back to a familiar name.
Ramaphosa also announced that he planned to report to the ANC’s National Working Committee that real progress was being made in rebuilding the party’s structures and community presence across KwaZulu-Natal. He led the campaign in Umlazi, south of Durban, engaging directly with residents and attending community meetings — the kind of ground-level contact the ANC has been criticised for neglecting in recent years. He expressed confidence that the party would win the November elections, citing what he described as strong community support and a reservoir of latent backing waiting to be converted into votes.
Analysts Push Back on the Momentum Claim
Not everyone is buying it. Political analyst Ntombela offered a pointed reality check, noting that the timing of Ramaphosa’s optimism matters enormously. “There is no strong evidence suggesting momentum gain. It is an election year after all; party leaders will say anything to secure votes,” Ntombela said bluntly. His caution cuts to the heart of a credibility problem the ANC faces — when a party has lost this much ground this quickly, declarations of revival from its own president carry an inherent credibility deficit, no matter how sincerely delivered.
Ntombela did acknowledge that the ANC had made structural changes following the 2024 disaster, with the party’s provincial leadership reconfigured and a provincial task team led by Mike Mabuyakhulu now steering the campaign. The task team has claimed effective grassroots structures and close voter contact, but Ntombela was careful to point out that those claims remain untested. The real measure of whether the reorganisation has worked will only come when voters actually cast their ballots on 4 November — and not a moment before.
eThekwini and the Coalition Question
The ANC’s position in eThekwini adds another layer of complexity to the picture. In the 2021 local government elections, the party received 42% of the vote in the metro, after which it was forced to govern through a coalition — a far cry from the commanding majorities it once took for granted. That coalition experience reflects a broader national trend of fragmented power that the ANC now navigates in multiple cities, and KwaZulu-Natal represents the sharpest version of that challenge. The province is no longer a stronghold; it is a battleground, and the ANC is fighting to stay relevant on terrain it once owned.
For South Africa’s young voters — the generation that came of age after apartheid and has watched the ANC govern through scandals, service delivery failures and internal divisions — Ramaphosa’s rally cry will need more than historical sentiment to land. The November elections will be a critical moment, not just for the ANC’s provincial standing, but for the broader question of whether the party can reconnect with communities that have already voted with their feet. The answers will come on 4 November.
