ANC Fights for Survival in Durban: Can It Hold eThekwini Against the MKP Wave?

ANC Sets Bold 1.2 Million Vote Target as MKP Threatens to Flip Durban

The African National Congress (ANC) has announced an ambitious target of 1.2 million votes in eThekwini ahead of the November 4 local government elections — a high-stakes gamble as the party fights to keep control of Durban against a surging Umkhonto weSizwe Party (MKP).

What’s at Stake

eThekwini is one of South Africa’s largest metros, with 224 council seats up for grabs. A party needs to win 113 seats to govern the city outright.

The ANC currently holds 74 of the city’s 112 wards — a majority it has maintained since the current local government system was established in 2000. Losing eThekwini would mark one of the party’s most significant political defeats in its post-apartheid history.

Party Leadership Sounds the Alarm

Thabani Nyawose, the ANC’s regional convenor for eThekwini, unveiled the 1.2 million vote target at a voter registration drive for party volunteers in Durban. He said the goal was agreed upon with party structures and volunteers on the ground.

ANC Secretary-General Fikile Mbalula also addressed the rally, warning against complacency and internal self-interest. He called for disciplined volunteers and stressed the need to field ward councillors who are genuinely trusted and active in their communities.

Mbalula acknowledged the real problems facing eThekwini residents, pointing to water supply failures and rising crime rates as urgent priorities requiring community-police cooperation.

The Numbers Don’t Lie — And They’re Bad for the ANC

Polling by the Social Research Foundation and The Common Sense, conducted in February and March 2026, paints a brutal picture for the ANC:

This marks a dramatic collapse from the ANC’s peak of 66.3% in 2009, and follows its all-time low of 14.4% in the 2024 general election. Political analysts now warn the party faces a virtual wipeout in the city it has governed for over two decades.

MKP Eyes a Two-Thirds Majority

The MKP is not holding back. Regional elections coordinator Zanele Makhanya has declared the party’s goal is to win eThekwini with a two-thirds majority — a target that would give it near-total control of the metro.

In a striking tactical move, the MKP has reportedly advised some of its supporters embedded within ANC-aligned municipal structures to maintain their public association with the ANC until after the elections — a sign of just how deeply the party has penetrated the ANC’s traditional base.

No Outright Winner Expected — Coalition Politics Looms

With no party projected to win an outright majority, eThekwini is heading toward a coalition government after November 4. That prospect opens the door to complex negotiations and political deals that could reshape how Africa’s third-largest city is governed.

Despite the grim polling, ANC’s Nyawose remained defiant. “We will not hand over this city to the MKP,” he said, pledging to defend every single one of the party’s 74 wards. Whether that fighting spirit can translate into votes remains the defining question of this election.